Need to Register?

Currently you can register through a Gmail, Facebook, or OpenID account. This helps us avoid spam. Click an icon below! :)

Sign In with Facebook Sign In with Google Sign In with OpenID

Hypergeometric Facehuggers

Number crunching related to Aliens and Facehuggers and card drawing.

Numbers selected to present some breakpoints of interest in the process since only scenarios of "D mod h=1" are of note, where D is Deck Size and h is hand size per draw. Note that when h >= D you are guaranteed to die at the start of the next turn.

With Deck size D=12

Draw 6 cards per turn: 50% chance, seeing 6 cards
Draw 7: 41.6%. see 7 cards (8.4% greater chance death but you see 17% more cards)

With Deck size D=15

Draw 6: 20% cumulative chance to make it two turns, seeing 12 cards
Draw 7: 6.6% cumulative chance to make it two turns, seeing 14 cards.
13.4% increased chance of death, but you see 16.7% more cards.

Deck size D=19
Draw 6: 36.8% two turns seeing 12 cards, 5.3% success of 3 turns with 18 cards.
Draw 7: 26.3% two turns seeing 14 cards, then horrible death on 3rd turn.

Deck size D=22
Draw 6: 72% chance one turn seeing 6, 45.45% chance of 2 turns seeing 12, 18% chance of 3 turns seeing 18 cards.
Draw 7: 68.18% chance one turn seeing 7, 36.36% chance two turns seeing 14, 4.5% chance three turns seeing 21 cards.

So I think if we look at the above numbers we can conclude that Clark is a giant sissy, and real men draw the extra goddamn card every turn, because winners don't want to be told the odds.

Sign In or Register to comment.

USDN.CA does not support IE8 or less. Things may not look good or work at all. Why aren't you using a modern browser? :)